Commercial Real Estate Market Indicators to Watch in 2009

1. Does financial lending find its way to Main Street? If so, we should see buyers AND sellers get off the sidelines.

2. Will the retail woes continue after the 2008 holiday season? If so, we should see even more retailers reduce store locations or even completely throw in the towel. Early in December I noticed one mall with Circuit City, Linens N Things, KB Toys, and a national jeweler chain all advertising their "out of business" sales. For more thoughts see SNOPES.

3. Watch the dollar. While a strong dollar is generally good for our economy, the bulk warehousing industry has benefited from increased exports.

4. Is owning a home as cool as it was a year ago? If home buyer confidence does not improve, apartment indexes will rise as a viable alternative to shelter. Home ownership is so last year!

5. Layoffs, layoffs, layoffs. Watch this one closely. Layoffs effect all areas of commercial real estate. Less workers = less space needed. It doesn't matter if workers are crunching numbers or hammering sheet metal a job position requires usable space. Therefore less jobs require less usable space. Check out the employment reports from our govt.